uk construction

Construction growth rising

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UK construction growth has risen through October, thanks in part to an upturn in civil engineering activity.

The IHS Markit/CIPS UK Construction Purchasing Managers’ Index rose in October to 53.2. This was up on the 52.1 reported in September and against the no-change reading of 50. For the uninitiated, a figure below 50 indicates contraction.

Having dropped off somewhat through August and September, civil engineering activity grew at its quickest pace since July 2017. Housing and commercial construction also expanded, albeit at a slower rate. New business volumes rose more slowly however, with construction firms citing intense competition and delayed decisions from clients as the root causes. Worryingly, business optimism fell to a near six-year low.

Understandably, input purchasing increased more cautiously – at its slowest rate in seven months. And yet, delivery times for construction products and materials continued to stretch, with firms reporting stock shortages at builders’ merchants.

Trevor Balchin, Economics Director at IHS Markit, said: “Although total UK construction activity rose at a stronger pace in October, the underlying survey data paint a less rosy picture for the sector towards the end of the year.”

According to Balchin: “Construction firms continued to raise headcounts at a strong pace, suggesting they are not expecting an imminent contraction in demand. That said, if the new orders and expectations indices remain at current levels or fall further, the employment index could also drift back towards the 50.0 no-change mark.”

Duncan Brock, Group Director at CIPS, added: “These results point to the sector getting stuck in the mud as we approach March 2019, and with ongoing supplier delays and stock shortages, the sector may not be able to respond quickly enough anyway should there by a sudden upturn in fortunes.”

Source: UK Construction Week / UK Construction Media

fire

Fire safety in construction a bigger priority post Grenfell

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The construction industry has seen myriad improvements to fire safety since the Grenfell Tower fire, but there is frustration that the government has responded too slowly, a new study reveals.

Since the fire in June 2017, which killed 71 people, construction industry professionals have seen substantive changes in products used for cladding, insulation and fire doors, as well as greater demands for more fire testing of products.

A survey of construction professionals from all parts of the trade, conducted for UK Construction Week (UKCW), also suggested fire safety has become a bigger priority in revised procurement policies, tenders and contract terms, the survey reveals.

However, the government was widely criticised for taking too long to clarify new requirements since the fire and subsequent publication of the Hackitt Review on 17 May 2018.

One respondent to the survey said: “I just wish that action could happen more quickly”, while another said “things are changing, but way too slowly.” Another had particularly low expectations of the government: “The government will take a decade to produce yet another set of incomplete regulations together, and will probably produce another white paper. They need to set a clock on this.”

Asked what changes they had made since the tragedy respondents had most frequently reviewed project designs and specifications, commissioned additional fire risk assessments on projects and ramped up fire safety training.

They were also asked to pick the three changes they thought would most likely improve fire safety across the built environment, in buildings of all sizes and types. On average they most frequently cited greater involvement of some to conduct a full fire risk assessment to enhance design and specification – such as an architect, clerk of works, fire engineer, or fire and rescue service.

Contractor-led ‘Design and Build’

Many called for the end of contractor-led ‘Design and Build’ contracts.

Not far behind in second place was a sea change in specifying materials. Many backed the recently announced ban on combustible materials in exposed areas of a building, in particular cladding or insulation.

The aluminium composite material panels used on Grenfell Tower have been banned and more recent regulations will extend the ban to include plastics, wood and products that include combustible materials such as aluminium composite panels in the external wall systems used in residential buildings more than 18 metres tall. The only materials that will be allowed are those classed as A1 or A2, which includes elements such as metal, stone and glass, which seldom contribute to fires; or plasterboard, which makes no significant contribution.

The third most highly ranked change sought by construction professionals was the installation and regular maintenance of sprinklers and other active fire detection and suppression equipment into all buildings.

New regulations only ranked sixth on the industry’s list of priorities.

Asked to score out of 10 their confidence that the UK’s approach to fire safety in all buildings would now change for the better, respondents on average went for 6 out of 10.

Contractors, specialist sub-contractors and building products suppliers are marginally more confident than other groups (average confidence score of 7 out of 10).

“Our research shows that the industry has taken to heart every opportunity to change its practice and is already well along a process that will change the way all buildings are procured, design, built and maintained,” said Nathan Garnett, event director at UK Construction Week.

“This is an issue that will be discussed widely at next week’s event, and is likely to remain the highest agenda item for years to come. While confidence is quite good at this time, we must do all we can to maintain the positive attitude and momentum behind these changes.”

Geoff Wilkinson, managing director of Wilkinson Construction Consultants, a fire safety and building standards expert and one of the speakers at this year’s UKCW seminar on quality in construction post-Grenfell, says:

“It is very encouraging to see the industry getting on with it, despite the hiatus from Government. But what’s needed is an industry-wide coordinated response.

“The ban on combustible materials is long overdue. We need to be told why it has taken over a year to get to this point when a very simple changing of regulatory guidance could have achieved the same thing in days.”

Source: Ifsecglobal.com

august figures

Government will lift the borrowing cap on councils to allow them to build many more homes

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The Prime Minister’s announcement that the Government will lift the borrowing cap on councils to allow them to build many more homes is a victory for bold thinking and common sense, according to the Federation of Master Builders (FMB). 

Brian Berry, Chief Executive of the FMB, said: “This is the most exciting, and potentially transformative, announcement on council housing for many years. It is something the house building sector and local authorities have been crying out for since the last economic downturn as a means by which to increase house building. Indeed, the only times the UK has built sufficient numbers of homes overall is when we’ve had a thriving council house building programme. Local authorities have a strong interest in delivering new affordable homes and many would have the appetite to directly fund this, but have been frustrated from doing so by an artificial cap on their ability to borrow against their assets to build homes. In a victory for common sense, Mrs May has now signalled that the borrowing cap will be scrapped to allow councils to build many more new homes.”

Berry continued: “We believe this could also have the added benefit of expanding the capacity of the private sector by providing more opportunities for SME builders. In this way, a stronger public sector house building programme can complement and help support a stronger, more diverse private sector. The private sector will continue to take the lead in delivering new homes, and to ensure it can do so, we need to continue to lay the foundations for a diverse private sector in which new firms can more easily enter the market and small firms can more easily prosper and grow. However, in order to deliver the number of new homes the Government is targeting it is going to be necessary for the private and public sectors to both be firing on all cylinders. That’s why this announcement is so welcome.”

Berry concluded: “However, as much as this is a bold and praiseworthy move by the Prime Minister, new homes of any sort will not get built if we as an industry don’t have the people we need to build them. Recent announcements on post-Brexit immigration rules, if implemented as currently understood, will be a serious threat to our ability to deliver on the promise of this policy. The failure of the Government so far to listen to the construction industry could unfortunately threaten the delivery of the Government’s increasingly bold moves to solve the housing crisis.”

Before the introduction of the cap under Margaret Thatcher, councils built around 10,000 homes a year – but that figure has subsequently dipped as low as 100. The amount of extra investment in housing could be around £1bn a year, but this is dependent on how many councils decide to borrow.

Source: fmb.org.uk / The Guardian

Cladding

Combustible cladding over 18m to be banned

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The Government has confirmed it is banning the use of all combustible cladding on new residential buildings over 18m.

New building regulations will be introduced for external wall systems banning plastics, wood and other products that include combustible materials found in some aluminium composite panel systems.

Materials that would be allowed are those classed as A1 or A2 under the European Classification system.

Hotels and office building would be exempt because they have different evacuation strategies and the risks are lower.

Full details of the proposed ban have yet to be released. It is still not known whether the ban would apply to any material in wall construction from the internal face of the wall through to its external face, as first proposed.

If this proved the case internal wallpaper and paint, window frames, gaskets and seals, vapour membranes, surface finishes and laminated glass would likely be exempted.

To comply with the stricter requirements, it is estimated that for a 15-storey new build requiring 1,700m2 of cladding, a wall system which comprises only materials of A2 will cost an extra £25,000-£75,000.

Across England, this would equate to an expected overall annual cost of £7.5m-£11m assuming average build rates, according to the Government.

The Communities Secretary James Brokenshire confirmed the decision at the Conservative Party Conference.

“I can confirm that I will change the building regulations to ban the use of combustible materials for all new high rise residential buildings, hospitals, registered care homes and student accommodation.

“And bring about a change in culture on building safety.”

The new ban will be implemented through changes to building regulations to be brought forward in late autumn.

The plan to tighten up on materials use on building exteriors came as the Government also issued a further warning that even small amounts of combustible ACM cladding fitted to existing buildings must be removed.

Fresh guidance from the Government’s expert panel revealed that some experts were mistakenly advising building owners that combustible ACM cladding could remain on high rise buildings when fitted to small parts or strips of the building envelope.

The guidance says: “We have become aware that some building owners have received advice that indicates that it is acceptable to leave small or partial amounts of ACM cladding on their buildings.

“Given the risk of fire spread posed by ACM cladding systems, the independent expert advisory panel’s view is that leaving any amount of ACM cladding on a building would continue to pose a hazard to both residents and firefighters in the event of a fire.

“The clearest way to ensure the safety of residents is to remove all ACM, including small or partial areas of ACM, and replace it with a safe material. This remains the most appropriate remediation solution.”

However, the Fire Brigades Union (FBU) said the new regulations did not go far enough, claiming the move was “designed for political convenience”.

Class A2 materials such as plasterboard, which has limited combustibility, will continue to be permitted under the new rules.

Firefighters are calling for only A1 materials, which do not contribute to a fire at any stage – such as metal, stone and glass – be allowed.

The partial ban on combustible cladding will not be applied retrospectively to buildings that have already had the panels fitted.

FBU general secretary Matt Wrack said: “These measures do not deal with the existing cladding on nearly 500 buildings across England where people live and work every day.

“The government’s proposals only apply to buildings over 18 metres high, plus hospitals, care homes and student accommodation, when they should apply to all buildings, whatever their height or use.

“They continue to allow A2 materials, when they should permit only the highest standard of A1.”

Mr Wrack added: “This announcement is designed for political convenience, not for thoroughgoing change. The failings in the fire safety regime are far wider than just the materials used. The whole deregulated system and weak guidance needs to be overhauled.

“Many residents of high rise residential buildings and firefighters wanted more comprehensive action taken against flammable cladding. This government has failed to deliver.”

A spokesman for Mr Brokenshire said: “We are saddened to see the response of the Fire Brigades Union. We consulted on this very important matter and indeed went beyond what was asked of us.

“These measures will save lives, and we are clear building safety is at the very heart of what Mr Brokenshire is doing.”

Source: Construction Enquirer / The Independent

fire

Fire regulatory system is ‘broken’

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Shadow fire minister Karen Lee has said the fire regulatory system is broken and requires a radical overhaul, and “the government’s approach to the public’s safety in the 15 months since Grenfell has been characterised by inaction.”

Deregulation in the 1980s created a performance-based system, said Lee, in which “rather than prescriptive rule-making, the system outlines required outcomes, left open to industry to decide how they are met”. Lee said that successive governments had scrapped regulations at the expense of public safety and claimed that fire regulations had failed to hold industry accountable for their products.

“Building regulations relating to cladding assert that “external walls of the building[s] [should] adequately resist the spread of fire,” said Lee. “However, large-scale system tests and desktop studies allow for flammable cladding to be used despite this regulation. “The Fire Brigades Union, the Local Government Association, the housing, communities and local government select committee and the Royal Institute of British Architecture have all raised concerns with testing methods which allow the use of flammable cladding and insulation,” she said.

The solution according to Lee was a complete overhaul of fire safety. “The fire regulatory system is broken and requires a radical overhaul,” said Lee. Labour’s shadow minister also criticised the Hackett review set up in the wake of the Grnfell fire. “The government commissioned the independent Hackett review and presented it as an opportunity for fire safety reform following Grenfell. In reality, Hackett’s recommendations offered no change to regulations. The review acknowledged that existing regulations have caused the industry to “race to the bottom” but did not ban flammable cladding or the methods enabling its use,” Lee said.

Lee also questioned the panel of experts that advised the Hackett review. “It is important to note that the expert panel advising the Hackett review had members who had signed off the use of flammable cladding, such as the Building Research Establishment which delivers the testing that allows for installation of flammable cladding,” said Lee. “The Hackett review failed. The government then pushed the issue into another consultation on banning the use of flammable materials on external walls of high-rise residential buildings,” she said.

While she welcomed the consultation, Lee said that residents living in buildings wrapped in potentially dangerous cladding should not have to wait more than a year for their safety to be consulted on. As of August 16 2018, the Ministry for Housing, Communities and Local Government has identified 466 buildings that still have Grenfell-like cladding installed. Lee claimed that the threat to these buildings mirrors that of Grenfell and the government needed to take urgent action.

RIBA have also proposed a post Grenfell fire safety plan of work, and have opened a consultation including a draft document that can be viewed here

It will be open until October 11, 2018 as a means to address concerns raised in Dame Judith Hackitt’s Independent Review of Building Regulations and Fire Safety. The review was launched as a response to the Grenfell Tower fire.

RIBA has used the proposed overhaul of its existing process guidance to try and incorporate key recommendations in the Hackitt review that have called for improved “transparency, accountability and collaboration” across the construction and building services industry.

RIBA director of practice Lucy Carmichael said that the draft Plan of Work set devised as a resource that can be adopted as broadly as possible by stakeholders working across design, construction and longer-term building management.

A key recommendation is to ensure the earlier involvement of building control, fire authorities, building managers and tenants. This could lead to increased costs for the client.

Project team accountability would be enforced through new statutory duties based on the Construction Design and Management Regulations 2015 model.

Proposed review and sign-off procedures, and independent inspection, would also help to safeguard fire safe specification and detailing, according to RIBA.

Source: Architecture.com / hvnplus / UK Construction Week

 

dame judith

Construction standards shocking, according to Dame Judith Hackitt

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Dame Judith Hackitt has said she was “truly shocked” by standards in the construction industry when researching her report, Independent Review of Building Regulations and Fire Safety, published earlier ths year.

She also warned that another “catastrophic event” cannot be ruled out if regulatory changes aren’t made.

Hackitt was speaking at IOSH 2018, the Institution of Occupational Safety and Health’s annual international conference. She told delegates that she encountered construction companies trying to do things as cheaply as possible rather than worrying about quality when she embarked on her review after last year’s Grenfell Tower disaster.

She added that it was vital a culture change was implemented as soon as possible while Grenfell was still fresh in people’s minds.

Hackitt said: “When I looked from the outside into standards in the built environment, what I encountered was truly shocking. The system for fire safety in high-rise and complex buildings was weak and ineffective.

“People actually said things like ‘we always knew something like this would happen’. They knew the system wasn’t working but didn’t know how to fix it. There was a race to the bottom. Companies were looking to do things as cheap as possible, getting around the rules. It was about cost, not quality.

“Unless we fix the system, we have no way of guaranteeing that there won’t be another catastrophic event.

“We need to get to a point where people those who construct a building are as responsible for those who use it over the next ten or 20 years as they are employee safety. What we are calling for is collaboration and joined-up thinking across the built environment sector, not self-interested groups protecting their own turf, something I have seen a lot of.”

Hackitt said some industry groups and the government are already looking at how to implement some of the measures recommended in her final report, including bringing together bodies such as the Health and Safety Executive, local authority building control and fire and rescue authorities and having the same risk-based approach as there is across other industries.

But there also needed to be stronger powers of enforcement, to provide more deterrent to cost-cutting, she added.

“Right now, the level of penalties when people are caught out is not strong enough,” she said. “There is no deterrent.

“We also need a system where people can raise concerns in the knowledge they will be acted on. The same goes for within industry, for example we don’t want people thinking they don’t know who to tell if there are concerns.”

Source: Construction Manager Magazine

commercial

Commercial building was the best performing area of construction output in August

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Commercial building was the best performing area of construction output in August 2018, followed closely by residential work.

However, the latest expansion of housing activity was the weakest since March, and civil engineering workload decreased for the first time in five months. A number of survey respondents cited a lack of new work on infrastructure projects.

Overall, August data pointed to a renewed slowdown in output growth across the UK construction sector but positive signs included an increase in new business and employment growth maintaining the recent peak level seen in July.

At 52.9 in August, the seasonally adjusted IHS Markit/CIPS UK Construction Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) eased from July’s 14-month high of 55.8, but remained above the crucial 50.0 no-change mark. The latest reading signalled a moderate overall rise in construction output, with the rate of expansion the weakest since May.

Anecdotal evidence cited resilient client demand and supportive economic conditions, but there were also reports that Brexit-related uncertainty continued to hold back investment spending. Higher overall workloads encouraged additional staff recruitment across the construction sector in August. Survey respondents noted tight labour market conditions and shortages of suitably skilled candidates to fill vacancies.

Purchasing activity increased for the eleventh consecutive month in August, although the latest upturn was the weakest since March. Low stock and labour shortages among suppliers continued to impact on delivery times for construction products and materials. The latest deterioration in supplier performance was the greatest seen for almost three-and-a-half years. Despite stretched supply chains and rising energy-related costs, latest data indicated that input price inflation edged down to its lowest since July 2016.

UK construction companies are optimistic that business activity will expand over the coming 12 months, but the degree of confidence eased to its weakest since May. Survey respondents cited confidence about achieving organic growth through new project wins and geographical diversification, while Brexit uncertainty remained the main factor cited as holding back sentiment.

Tim Moore, associate director at IHS Markit and author of the IHS Markit/CIPS Construction PMI, said: “The construction sector slipped back into a slower growth phase in August, with this summer’s catch-up effect starting to unwind after projects were delayed by adverse weather at the start of 2018.

“Civil engineering was the worst performing area of the construction sector, with output in this category falling for the first time since March amid reports citing a lack of new work on infrastructure projects. House building saw a particularly sharp slowdown since July, meaning that commercial construction was the fastest growing sub-sector in August.

“There are some encouraging takeaways from the latest survey, especially the resilient degree of new business growth in August and a strong upturn in staff recruitment. Survey respondents noted that they are confident about achieving organic growth at their businesses in the coming 12 months. The degree of optimism reported in August remained constrained by external factors, including domestic political uncertainty, stretched supply chains and shortages of suitably skilled labour.”

Duncan Brock, group director at the Chartered Institute of Procurement & Supply, said: “Cracks in the construction sector’s masonry were beginning to show again this month, and the house building sub-sector was hit the hardest as it reported the poorest performance since March this year.

“Civil engineering saw a drop off in larger infrastructure projects and found itself in contraction territory. Levels of new work held moderately steady overall, but with any significant growth held back by Brexit uncertainty. It was also the logjams in supply routes that hampered work in hand where material and skills shortages meant vendor performance deteriorated to its worst level since March 2015.

“If there is anything positive to note from this month, it would be that the rate of hiring remained strong. However, persistent pressures from skills shortages and slow rates of new orders will continue to hit business optimism still trailing below the survey’s average.

“The sector is hovering too close for comfort to the no change mark, which makes it a contender for more disappointment next month. Though the path to Brexit is paved with good intentions, without significant progress the sector will soon be building castles in the air rather than on solid ground.”

Source: The Construction Index

 

 

Summer

Summer high for construction

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UK Construction is riding high through summer, with the latest IHS Markit/CIPS UK Construction Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) indicating the fastest rise in construction output since May 2017.

With robust and accelerating rises in construction activity during July, the industry is riding a successful summer. House building has expanded at its sharpest pace since December 2015, underpinning the sector.

The latest survey also indicated that new business growth gained momentum, which contributed to the largest rise in employment numbers since December 2015.

The latest survey results put the Index at 55.8, a sharp rise on 53.1 in June. Purchase Mangers responding to the survey noted improved demand and a higher volumes of new starts, together with some degree of catch-up work from the terrible spring weather.

Continuing the trend seen this year, house building and residential work remains the best performing sector. Activity in July shows the strongest upturn since December 2015. Commercial work, which has been lagging since 2015 also showed a strong pick-up in pace.

July 2018 has given the construction sector its strongest increase in total new orders for over a year, with survey respondents noting a general improvement in client demand had led to successful contract negotiations on larger scale projects.

However, construction companies are cautious about the year ahead business outlook, with the degree of positive sentiment about future workloads unchanged since June and remaining weaker than the long-term survey average. Anecdotal evidence suggests that Brexit-related uncertainty continued to hold back business optimism in July.

Supply chain pressures continued in July, which contributed to another sharp lengthening of delivery times for construction products and materials. However, input cost inflation moderated from the nine-month high seen in June.

Civil engineering activity increased only moderately, with companies noting a lack of work to replace completed projects (particularly railway infrastructure work).

Tim Moore, Associate Director at IHS Markit and author of the IHS Markit/CIPS Construction PMI®, commented: “July data reveal an impressive turnaround in the performance of the UK construction sector, with output growth the strongest for just over one year. While the recent rebound in construction work has been flattered by its recovery from a low base earlier in 2018, there are also signs that underlying demand conditions have picked up this summer. New business volumes expanded at the strongest rate since May 2017, while workforce numbers increased to the greatest extent for just over two and-a-half years.

“House building was the bright spot for construction growth in July, alongside a stronger upturn in commercial development projects. Residential activity and commercial work both increased at the sharpest pace since December 2015, which contrasted with another subdued month for civil engineering.

“UK construction companies experienced substantial cost pressures in July, driven by rising fuel bills and higher prices for steel-intensive items. Meanwhile, supply chains struggled to keep up with greater demand for construction products and materials, which resulted in the greatest lengthening of delivery times since July 2017.”

Source: UK Construction Media

cladding

Flammable cladding is a breach of human rights

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The use of flammable cladding on Grenfell Tower and other high-rise residential blocks constitutes a breach of the residents’ human rights, according to the Equality & Human Rights Commission, and thus exposes public authorities to prosecution under the Human Rights Act 1998.

The Equality & Human Rights Commission (EHRC) has written to the Department for Housing, Communities & Local Government (DHCLG) outlining its concerns about the continued use of combustible cladding in existing buildings and advising the department of its responsibilities under human rights laws to protect lives.

The EHRC is supported by the British Safety Council in its challenge to the government over its failure to protect lives

In a briefing paper on the subject, the EHRC says: “A key issue in the Grenfell inquiry will be whether the building regulations banned the use of polyethylene-based cladding in high-rise residential blocks, due to the risk of fire associated with it. If the building regulations did ban its use, questions will be asked about the adequacy of the systems for monitoring and supervising compliance with those regulations, including in council buildings, to ensure that cladding was installed safely. Both scenarios raise questions about whether the UK has met its duty to protect life. Additional issues arise concerning fire safety regulations, including the installation of fire sprinklers in high-rise buildings.”

The EHRC has expressed its concern that the consultation on the use of external cladding omits any reference to the government’s duty to protect lives under article 2 of the European Convention on Human Rights and schedule 1 to the Human Rights Act 1998.

British Safety Council chairman Lawrence Waterman said: “The British Safety Council has participated in the consultation, calling for much tighter building controls, clearer guidance and effective enforcement. The EHRC intervention takes a wider view and supports our long-held and consistent argument that health and safety is a crucial underpinning of the human right to life.”

The EHRC explains: “The right to life is one of the fundamental guarantees in international human rights law. In many respects it is a prerequisite to, and closely linked with, the enjoyment of all other rights. The right to life is protected under international and European human rights treaties, including Article 6 of the International Covenant on Civil and Political Rights (ICCPR) and Article 2 of the European Convention on Human Rights (ECHR). The UK government has signed up to these treaties and has to abide by them at all times.

“Article 2 of the ECHR is particularly important in the UK as it has been incorporated into domestic law by the Human Rights Act 1998. This means that all UK governments and public bodies – central, local and devolved – including all public officials, have to take appropriate measures to safeguard life by making laws to protect people and, in some circumstances, by taking active steps to protect people if their lives are at risk. If they don’t do this, they can be taken to court.”

Solicitor Anjon Mallik, construction partner at Gordons law firm, commented: “The Human Rights Commission’s intervention that the use of flammable cladding on Grenfell Tower and other high rise buildings is a breach of human rights is an issue that the Grenfell Inquiry will not be able to ignore.  If it turns out that the use of polyethelene based cladding in high rise cladding had actually been banned by building regulations but its continued use had not been properly monitored, the public will rightly expect those in authority to be held to account.  And, unless and until those responsible face the severest consequences,  the clamour for heads to roll will continue.”

Source: construction index.co.uk

Construction growth

Construction growth to rebound to 2.3% next year

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UK construction output is expected to bounce back to 2.3% growth in 2019 after dipping by 0.6% this year.

The growth hiatus this year ends the five-year run enjoyed by the industry, fed mainly by private sector home building and strong commercial and industrial activity.

While forecast 2019 and 2020 growth will boost civils contractors and trade contractors working for house builders, commercial building contractors are expected to continue to feel the squeeze in both commercial and retail work opportunities.

The latest forecast from economists at the Construction Products Association, revises 2018 output down from stagnation to contraction, due mainly to bad weather and the fall-out from Carillion.

Forecasters predict growth will bounce back in 2019 and then expand by 1.9% in 2020.

Strong house building activity outside London will drive up activity in this sector by 5% in 2018 and 2% in 2019.

Infrastructure will also become a primary driver of growth for the whole industry, with output forecast to hit a historic high of £23.6bn by 2020, driven by large projects such as HS2 and Hinkley Point C.

Without the forecast growth in infrastructure and private housing activity, total construction output would fall by 3% in 2018 and remain flat in 2019.

The demise of Carillion resulted in a poor performance for the industry at the start of the year, which combined with the bad weather, lost UK construction £1bn of work.

It is estimated 60% of this work may be recovered, but Carillion’s collapse will cause further delays at two major hospitals as work on the £335m Royal Liverpool University and Birmingham’s £350m Midland Metropolitan hospitals is on hold until at least 2019.

Brexit uncertainty continues to drive the sharpest decline for construction in the commercial sector, particularly felt in the offices sub-sector which is expected to fall 20% in 2018 and a further 10% in 2019.

Meanwhile, the shift to online shopping is causing woes for the high street, with new retail construction expected to fall by 10% this year.

Noble Francis, Economics Director at the Construction Products Association said: “Overall, it’s mixed fortunes for contractors at the moment.

“On the positive side, house builders are keen on accelerating building rates outside of London and that is expected to be enough to offset sharp falls in house building in the capital.

“Firms working on major infrastructure projects also have a lot of work in the pipeline. Infrastructure output is forecast to rise by 3% in 2018 and 13% in 2019.

“This growth is highly dependent on large projects such as HS2 and Hinkley Point C. As ever, there remain concerns about government’s ability to deliver infrastructure projects without the cost overruns and delays that we have seen on Crossrail and HS2 recently.

“On the negative side, the elephant in the room is clearly Brexit uncertainty, which has had a big effect on international investment, especially where it is high up-front investment for a long-term rate of return, which is now highly uncertain.

“It badly affects demand in sectors such as prime residential in London, commercial offices towers and industrial factories, which is dependent on manufacturing.”

CPA summer 2018 forecast

  • Construction output to fall by 0.6% in 2018 before growth of 2.3% in 2019 and 1.9% in 2020
  • Private housing starts to rise by 2.0% in 2018 and 2019
  • Commercial offices output to fall by 20.0% in 2018 and by 10.0% in 2019
  • Commercial retail output to fall by 10.0% in 2018 and remain flat in 2019
  • Infrastructure construction to grow by only 3.2% in 2018 and 13.0% in 2019

Source: Construction Enquirer